26.03.14 / Uncategorized / Author: admin / Comments Off
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On The Road To $100 Oil: The Historical High Is Actually $99.04 Per Barrel
With eyes focused on whether and when oil breaks through the $100 barrier, it turns out that $100 a barrel is really $99.04, at least in terms of the all-time record, according to Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA).CERA, an IHS company (NYSE: IHS), finds that the inflation-adjusted high of $99.04 in today’s dollars, $39.50 in 1980 dollars, was reached during the spring of 1980 when geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East, and Iran in particular, created acute uncertainty about the reliability and adequacy of oil supplies from the world’s most important oil exporting region.”Breaking the historical high of $99.04 per barrel will be a landmark in itself,” said James Burkhard, managing director of the Global Oil Group at CERA. “It will certainly have psychological impact since it will intensify momentum for the market to hit $100 per barrel. And it will have a concrete effect since it pushes the world economy deeper into uncharted territory-the oil price range which can contribute to an economic slowdown.”CERA’s calculation of $99.04 is based on the April 1980 nominal average posted price of $39.50 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate. This is a monthly average price since, at the time, there was no crude oil futures market to provide a daily price. Crude oil futures trading did not begin until 1983. The translation of the nominal prices into 2007 U.S. dollars is based on the U.S. Consumer Price Index using annual averages.”There are different indexes and methods that can be used to adjust prices to inflation,” Burkhard said. “These methods can result in prices that are lower or higher than our $99.04 per barrel calculation. However, we believe that using an annual average inflation rate provides the best basis for comparison between 1980 and 2007, and that is what makes $99.04 the benchmark for today.”$100 OIL: WHAT IT MEANSThe oil price in recent weeks has taken on the trappings of a sporting record that once seemed untouchable. Now it is broken with such regularity that what has historically been viewed as a distant prospect-$100 per barrel oil-is in sight. The world has never experienced a triple-digit oil price. The all-time inflation-adjusted high was in April 1980, when, CERA calculates, crude oil hit $99.04 per barrel in terms of 2007 US dollars. The broader significance of a $90-$100 price range is that it highlights in dramatic fashion how different the oil market environment, and indeed the world economy, is today compared with the past two decades.Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, made the following statement with regard to the rising price of oil:”The oil market is demonstrating both ‘fright and flight.’ Instead of the proverbial ‘flight to the dollar’ in times of economic uncertainty, we’re now seeing ‘a flight to oil.’ The strengthening of oil since August is responding, in part, to the weakening of the dollar. For the last few years, the force behind rising oil prices has been strong global economic growth. Over the last several weeks, the market focus has shifted to economic weakness in the United States. At the same time, tension over Iran’s nuclear program will continue to recharge anxiety on a continuing basis in the oil market.Historical assumptions about the dynamics of oil prices, demand, supply, and the global economy have given way to a new, but still unfolding, paradigm. This new paradigm is not without risks and dangers. The world economy can withstand the headwinds of very high oil prices much better than in the past, but prices of $90 to $100 push geopolitics and the economy deeper into uncharted territory. High oil prices will tend to exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the short term and create a sharper divide between the winners and losers of a very high oil price environment.Today’s price levels bring us farther into the range where the oil price can contribute to an economic slowdown. The effect on economic and oil demand growth depends on the duration of $90-$100 oil. Although not widely recognized in the face of the attention on the record, for 2007 the year-to-date annual average for West Texas Intermediate is just $70- not $100.Burkhard continued: “The reaction to oil prices varies much around the world, owing to differences in income levels, taxes, subsidies and the relative use of oil in a national economy. But, if oil prices were to average around $110 for six months or more, it would increase the world economy’s vulnerability to a serious downturn of the early 1980s’ type. But even prices in the $90s have negative impacts on the economy and consumer spending. We just haven’t seen the full effects yet, for the year-to-date annual price for oil this year has been $70- not $100!”CERA’s Break Point scenario (as described in CERA’s Dawn of a New Age: Energy Scenarios to 2030 study) demonstrates that $120-plus prices would not only have major economic impact, but would lead to much stronger conservation policies among consuming countries and would greatly accelerate innovation and efficiency and a move away from oil, even in transportation.”High oil prices in the 1970s set the stage for the most severe global downturn since the Great Depression. Indeed, the high prices of 1980 were at the beginning of the worst three-year period of economic growth of the past four decades. For the oil price to potentially play a similar role in a significant economic slowdown, prices would have to average from $100 to $120 per barrel for six months to a year. To be sure, negative economic repercussions on consumer spending and economic growth will also materialize even at prices in the $90s range. Also, of course, oil prices do not exist in a vacuum, but will interact with other economic developments, particularly the unfolding consequences of the credit crunch.The jump in price from $75 at the beginning of September to the mid-$90s in early November highlights the dominant sentiment driving the oil market-that oil supply will be unable to keep pace with rising demand. The market may hit prices above $100 unless signs emerge that the oil price has reached a level that is reducing economic and oil demand growth. However, if oil demand growth hits the brakes or if supply anxiety eases, we could see a steep fall in price.Daniel Yergin added: “Oil prices at this level will themselves be a negative in conjunction with everything else going on in the U.S. economy. While $60 or $70 oil had little effect on the economy, that does not mean the same will hold true for $100 oil. One point is obvious – we’re much more likely to see an impact on demand at this higher price level, especially in the context of a slowing economy.”A continuing downslide for the dollar will put oil on an upslide.” Articles from – http://www.securitysnail.com/
25.05.13 / Uncategorized / Author: admin / Comments Off
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Part 1.
On earphones count the word ‘ diet’ produced above 157 million web pages of diets, pills, potions and maintaining your diet tips from health establishments, diet companies, nutritional professionals and otherwise – from in many countries.And yet we can be approaching the peak of any obesity epidemic which is certainly causing untold mental agony and depression, aside belonging to the ever increasing debilitating diseases being connected to those overweight or at an unhealthy weight.With such an selection of information available – can this be?
The trend is unforgiving it is second only to smoking in the case of the cause of self-inflicted premature loss in life, but left to its own devices over the following five years obesity will most likely take the number a single slot.Mother Nature is ruthless in her way of life, in that she sole allows the fittest to survive additionally,red meizitang strong version reviews, the trend we see today is her a reaction to the effects of dieting that is clearly not worthy the well-being of our bodies and mind.We only need to stop, take a step in back and show off around us to see there is one hell of a critical problem.There is no dependence on statistics, reports or media news to find out us such.It’s clear that most people as individuals have to brew a change in what we do if we certainly have any intention to reverse the existing obesity trend.The ultimate responsibility lies with altogether of us to act for as well as ourselves.
We have to accept the reality that the grocery industry can be a host of contradiction for the reason that it sells both dietary products along side the very products that cause us that they are overweight or obese first and foremost.This is so obvious individuals supermarkets today.It has grown to become human nature that profit is known for a higher weighting than human being health, and this is seen in many industries all over, and is far through unique within dieting circles.We must also don’t forget the diet companies, even when they portray an oxygen of interest and dilemma, in reality they are totally dependent upon your failure to diet for their own individual business survival.If people were good at what some people do – their small businesses would surely fail.Aren’t can we trust as well as ourselves.The evidence is clear -there isn’t an debate.
We may have one reprieve but it will probably be sometime in the upcoming, but not now.Science and technology gets nearer and nearer into the possibility of a wonder drug with all the ever-increasing understanding of the particular human genotype and genetic engineering.But in fact, who would ever wish or envy dependent on diet drug treatments, potentially an ongoing everyday basis, simply because of zero understanding about the relationship concerning the food our body has been designed for, and the food item we eat.Why has it been, we knowingly overeat muscle building know it is harmful us and that we’re doing harm to yourself? Why is it, of the fact that only time we are going to ignore our food is definitely the time when we happen to be eating it!
So, that may be a psychological thing, a physical thing or that may be both?
In order to response this we must first brows through the change in our diet throughout the last 50 years.Consumption trends of refined carbohydrates that include sugar has risen dramatically, but at the same time the intake of fats and proteins provides remained reasonably stable.Bad fats has indeed become nevertheless is a problem eventhough thankfully now overall use of saturated fats has fell slightly, but still remains a difficulty.
Many studies particularly those connected to research in how all the Atkins diet worked revealed the fact that effect of refined sugar and fats both have a type addiction associated with these individuals.Studies have shown that refined sugars enjoy the effect of playing havoc together with the fine balance of maintaining the condition of glucose in the system.This in turn is known for a detrimental effect on the hormonal activity, such as insulin and glucagon that happens to be both responsible for maintaining the condition of glucose to its normal level using a ‘ surge’ intake of refined carbohydrates in this particular diet.These acceptable degrees of glucose in the circulatory system are maintained at astonishingly narrow margins.
Refined sugars therefore induces substantial hormonal activity in its hope to restore homeostasis.These out of place ‘ swings’ in hormonal activity normally cause differing mood swings from that to be happy and content to be able to being sad, on benefit, and even feelings regarding anxiety or panic.Prolonged exposure to these hormonal swings might lead to the full process becoming less helpful and subsequently diabetes could possibly end result.
Other studies have shown surprisingly the fact that the effect of eating serious quantities of fats actually triggers an unexpected human reaction in the case of nutrition.You would are convinced eating food rich in fats could have the effect of extremely rewarding feeling of hunger.But amazingly medical research proves the opposite to end up being true.Clinical trials point out that foods rich around fats actually induces visitors to eat more not significantly less.At the time the outcome from such experiments were groundbreaking because they completely contradicted the nutritional thinking of that time period,red meizitang strong version reviews.
It is also interesting to educate yourself that further medical reviews have suggested that foods abundant with protein have been for this response that indicates that there is consumed sufficient food.To explain, it is believed that proteins not directly, triggers the ‘ Now i’m full’ response.
And then surely there is the massive change in the energy expenditure.We which is used to hunt and gather diet but now we happily pop into the local supermarket to decide to buy it, or at even more serious, have it delivered to front door.Food has changed coming from being scarce to being by the bucket load (at least for us), and there is changed from being ‘ active’ to make sure you relatively ‘ dormant’.Push less and eat more… the things should we expect?
And many are convinced even the act with not exercising can trigger the bodily respond to lower the metabolism and also build fat layers inside of the skin for 2 vital reasons, both being known to cause human survival.In evolutionary terms and conditions,red meizitang strong version reviews, it may be you happen to be unable to ‘ hunt’ thereby unable to secure meals.Reducing the metabolic rate to your body makes total sensation to preserve energy.Also, if food is available in a spell of non activity, does it not produce whole load of sense to set fat layers under skin to retain bodily heat and secure an energy source during potential ‘ incline times’.Perfect sense, perfect design even though we don’ t understand ourselves considering the fact that we do, many love to ignore the warning signs out person is offering.
In essence for this reason, it is very clear that an area of the problem within the dieting world which we humans face is surely a physical one that is for this interaction of the food stuff types we eat your of our body.And additionally clearly, over the last 50 funny years our diet has changed using all recognition and yet our body is doing just as it has been doing for well over the last 100,red meizitang strong version reviews, 000 years.People are in the 21st millennium, our body is still while in the ‘ Stone Age’.Evolution is a slower slow process but over lots of years the relationship and reaction of chemicals in our food with all the cells of our bodies has been cemented and cast, for eons of your respective.
So, it is us that want to change… because Heredity will not entertain us for tens of thousands of years to come…
Run in it, eat what your body has long been designed for and successful losing weight will follow for sure…
Jeff Garcia
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Are often the Barriers Of Dieting Emotional Or Physical?